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Another Russian invasion of Ukraine? A Scenario

In the summer of 2020, Russian forces entered Dnipropetrovsk International Airport (Ukraine’s fourth largest city), blockaded the M34 motorway that links Dnipropetro- vsk to Kiev and seized railway lines in the region. At the same time, Russia deployed the Admiral GrigorovichLadnyy and Smetlivyy frigates and the Azov and Caesar Kunikov landing ships in the Sea of Azov, sent air detachments and funneled supplies through the coastal cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk. Paratroopers, tank battalions and mecha- nised warfare equipment were then deployed to the Kherson, Zaporizhia and Dnipro- petrovsk regions via bases in Russia’s Southern Military District. Following Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, the Russian military had modernised their air and land as- sault capabilities through regular training – with a view to one day deploying forces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Yet what appeared to be an act of war was in fact an act of humanitarian assistance – or rather, an act of war under the cover of humanitarian assistance.

Indeed, Ukraine was in need of humanitarian assistance due to mass flooding – only Russia went further than that. Once in control of the airport, it impounded all EU aid supplies sent to the region to help cope with the flooding and started its own deliveries of aid and supplies to the region via Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Although interna- tional calls on Russia were issued immediately to allow international humanitarian aid into the affected regions, it became clear that Moscow had taken full political and mili- tary control of the Kherson, Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. More than 5,000 personnel and 900 pieces of equipment were deployed in the three regions, including Spetsnaz brigades and elements of the 4th Air Force such as the Mi-8 transport aircraft and Ka-52 attack helicopters. These were not sufficient grounds for NATO to intervene: after all, this was not an Article 5 situation. Once accused of mainly supplying aid provi- sions to Russian-friendly populations and rebel groups, Russia expelled all remaining international observers and aid providers from the region. ‘What we are seeing in the south of Ukraine is a wilful attempt by Russia to deliver aid selectively and the imposi- tion of martial law’, claimed one Western diplomat. Yet ambassadors at the UN Security Council found no clear path forward on how to deal with the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine – especially given the presence of Russian forces on the ground.

EUISS Report, 2017, No. 34

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