Recent
Publications
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ARES Group (with Félix Arteaga) This paper is the second of the ARES series titled “Which type of armament cooperation do we want/need?”. The purpose of this series is to explore how EU Member States envision the future of armaments… more ›
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The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and CSDS By Hans Horan, Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Daniel Fiott and Jan Feldhusen with contributions by Davis Ellison and Frank Bekkers Europe’s security environment is increasingly shaped by “whole-of-society” shocks in which military threats intersect… more ›
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Foundation for European Progressive Studies Europe is entering an era of unprecedented defence investment, with EU institutions and member states projected to spend nearly €6.8 trillion on defence by 2035. This surge comes amid a deteriorating security environment shaped by Russia’s… more ›
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The Hague NATO Summit on 25 June 2025 will possibly go down in history as the moment when Europeans were put on serious notice by the United States that Washington was no longer going to subsidise European security. As a… more ›
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This commentary explores the intersection between Europe’s reindustrialisation of its defence sector and the European Union’s (EU) decarbonisation agenda. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated efforts to strengthen Europe’s defence technological and industrial base (EDTIB), yet this rearmament drive occurs… more ›
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Europe and South Korea are increasingly aligned in their pursuit of stronger defence industrial resilience amid intensifying geopolitical competition and technological disruption. Both actors recognise that defence production is now as much about economic sovereignty and technological leadership as it… more ›
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Despite the European Union’s (EU) steps in recent months to boost defence investment, the sector faces structural challenges, not least due to global industrial overcapacities. Large financial investments are being made in the European defence sector, but the EU must… more ›
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This article considers concepts of European Union Strategic Autonomy in light of the growing scholarly literature on wedging and binding. The article presents three ideal types of strategic autonomy as the images of ‘responsibility’, ‘hedging’ and ‘independence’. It assesses each… more ›
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As an academic discipline, defence economics leans towards the conclusion that military expenditure does not contribute to economic growth, and, to the extent that it does, it is in limited areas. Ultimately, governments cannot justify defence expenditure based solely on… more ›
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NATO is enhancing its defence and deterrence in the face of grave geopolitical risks. While the major focus in 2025 is on ramping up the manufacturing of ammunition, missiles, tanks, armoured vehicles and more, there is a risk that the… more ›
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The war in Ukraine and worrying shifts in the transatlantic relationship are forcing EU member states and institutions to think more seriously about Europe’s security and defence. Although the EU has had a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) since… more ›
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Defence has become a public policy area of the highest priority in Europe. As the war in Ukraine rages on and the second Trump administration encourages Europeans to take ownership of conventional defence within NATO, the European Union (EU) has launched a flurry… more ›
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The European Defence Fund (EDF) has been in operation since 2021 and has become an integral part of European efforts to enhance defence investments. Since 2021, the European Commission has invested €4 billion into 225 collaborative defence research and development… more ›
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In 2025, security of supply in defence in the European Union is yet again on the policy agenda, especially given the ongoing war on Ukraine and shifts in the transatlantic relationship. In this policy paper, we take stock of the… more ›
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The United States appears to be consistent on the idea that “great power” or “strategic” competition and, more specifically, “competition with China” stands out as its overriding national security priority. Insofar as Trump administration’s strategic approach towards Ukraine and Europe… more ›
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In the absence of the US security guarantee, Europe will have to rearm while also remaining united. The good news is that the Europeans are capable of achieving both—as long as they truly want to. When faced with the second… more ›
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As the United States prioritises deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific, the question of how Europeans can take primary responsibility for conventional defence in Europe will take centre stage at NATO’s upcoming 76th Summit in The Hague. Against this backdrop,… more ›
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Despite the epoch changing nature of Russia’s war and the second Trump presidency, Europeans do not yet appear ready for more European Union (EU) defence integration. The European Commission has designed a credible package of defence industrial initiatives, detailed its… more ›
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The 6 March 2025 European Council special meeting focused on European defence and support to Ukraine. European leaders have put-off answering fundamental questions related to European security guarantees. The special European Council meeting set the parameters for a substantial increase… more ›
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The European Commission has announced a €800 billion increase in defence spending, but this figure masks the challenges facing Europe’s defence market. The injection of €150 billion worth of loans for defence raises questions about the real needs of Europe’s… more ›
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Meeting at an informal leaders’ retreat in Brussels in early February 2025, EU leaders were keen to establish the political guidelines for a host of defence policy developments in 2025. In the context of the continuing war against Ukraine, and… more ›
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The second Trump presidency will in many ways be unique, but Europeans will likely still pursue the short-term tactics of keeping a low profile or enhancing bilateralism with the United States (US). Europeans may try to play President Trump at… more ›
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Since Russia’s war on Ukraine, defence industrial cooperation between the European Union and Ukraine has been put high on the agenda. In addition to the armament deliveries being made to Kyiv, there is now the ambition to integrate Ukraine within… more ›
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South Korea has emerged as a major supplier to European militaries, and this has helped with Europe’s imminent need for military rejuvenation. Given the quality of South Korean defence equipment and supplies, Seoul is viewed with credibility in the defence… more ›
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13/2024 Having faced a series of coup d’états in recent years, the Sahel region is marked by instability and it raises fundamental security questions for Europe. In a context where European governments are responding to Russia’s war on Ukraine, and… more ›
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L’Union européenne de la défense, qui se construit depuis quelques années dans un contexte sécuritaire préoccupant, dépend du droit de l’Union, c’est-à dire tant des règles fixées par les États membres dans les traités que de celles adoptées par les… more ›
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By introducing a defence commissioner, Ursula von der Leyen’s second European Commission makes clear that Europe’s security is an urgent priority. Defence industrial policy will, by necessity, be a key focus. IP Quarterly, 2024 Read Image credit: All rights reserved… more ›
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The European Union (EU) has been developing military mobility, but so far with mixed results. It is time to rethink these efforts by investing more generally in military logistics. With the forthcoming “Niinistö Report” and defence White Paper, there is… more ›
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Following the results of the European elections, Ursula von der Leyen delivered a statement at the European Parliament on 18 July 2024 to support her second mandate as European Commission President. Outlining her vision for the future, the President stated… more ›
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Given the geopolitical outlook for Europe, security of supply is a necessary element of enhancing the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) and ensuring industrial readiness and strategic autonomy. The European Commission has proposed a security of supply regime,… more ›
Daniel Fiott 