By now, we are familiar with the serious risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Militaries across Europe have been praised for their role in delivering medical supplies, transporting patients, testing citizens and building makeshift hospitals. Notwithstanding the current second and possible future waves of the virus, however, attention is turning away from response towards the long-term economic implications of the pandemic on European defence. In this respect, many analysts were quick off the mark to document the potential dangers that COVID-19 could have for defence budgets and capability development. These analysts rightfully pointed out that any future budgetary “black hole” left after the virus would have a dramatic effect on European defence, and more than the 2008 financial crisis ever did. The simple math shows what they mean. In 2008, a -4.5 per cent drop in EU GDP resulted in a 24 billion euro fall in defence spending over six years. Today, the European Commission calculates that the EU will experience a -7.2 per cent drop in GDP in 2020 alone.
Paper in “The Quest for European Strategic Autonomy – A Collective Reflection”, 2020
Daniel Fiott 