In many respects, the NATO Vilnius Summit of 11-12 July 2023 revealed one of the core issues facing the alliance today: how, when and if to enlarge to include Ukraine. Enlargement has always been a sensitive and contested issue for NATO, but the prospect of taking on a country that is currently the victim of Russian military aggression raises difficult questions. To be sure, the official summit communiqué stated that Ukraine’s “future is in NATO”, but there are clear differences in how NATO allies define the word “future”. The Vilnius Summit effectively served as a bellwether for where allies sit in relation to Ukraine’s NATO membership. The answer? One group wants to hold out until the war is over, whereas others want a clear roadmap and commitment for Kyiv, today. Admit Ukraine today, and there is a risk that NATO will be drawn into war with Russia. Stall or withhold membership, and Russia will be tempted to attack Ukraine (again) after a post-war settlement.

IDN Portugal Brief, 2023

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