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From Liberalisation to Industrial Policy: Towards a Geoeconomic Turn in the European Defence Market?
The European defence market can be described as a geoeconomically relevant sector that forms part of Europe’s overall economy, not least in the way that it is a producer of military capabilities and technologies and a repository of scientific skills. Traditionally, European Union (EU)-level steps to support and liberalise the…
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In Whose Interests? Regulating Europe’s Defence Industry and the Politics of Exemptions
The European Union (EU) needs to ramp-up its defence-industrial production and it is looking to do this with a new financial tool termed the European Defence Investment Programme (EDIP). The introduction of the EDIP will raise questions about the European Commission’s commitment to market liberalisation in the defence sector. Joint…
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Military Attacks and the European Union
The EU’s “Mutual Assistance Clause” is designed to ensure an EU-wide response in case of an act of armed aggression against any member state. Yet, the treaties are unclear about what a response should look like in practice, even though the unique character of individual member states is maintained. As…
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Military-Technological Cooperation Across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific
The “AUKUS” agreement between Australia, United Kingdom and United States has emerged as the paragon of military-technological cooperation across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. There are considerable challenges to implementation. However, it is important that the AUKUS program be a success because it is a daring and novel approach to…
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The Turning Tide? A European Agenda for the Washington Summit
War has raged in Ukraine for close to two years now, and Russia’s illegal war continues to pose a strategic dilemma for NATO and the European Union. Although allies are producing more ammunition and equipment, there is a risk that Europeans do too little, too late. There may only be…
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My work with the Real Instituto Elcano in 2023
Another year over. As a Non-Resident Fellow at the Real Instituto Elcano, I have had the great pleasure of working closely with my colleagues in the Brussels office and at our headquarters in Madrid. I want to thank all of my colleagues and the Institute’s leadership. It has been a…
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My Work with CSDS in 2023 – A Year in Review
Wishing my followers a Happy New Year and all the best for 2024! Here’s a round-up of my work with CSDS in 2023. It was a productive year for publications. I published 3 peer-reviewed articles including: In Every Crisis an Opportunity? European Union Integration in Defence and the War on…
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Defence Matters: Ten Years of European Defence and What Has Really Been Achieved?
Ten years ago to the day, Heads of State and Government met at a specially designated session of the European Council: the focus, European defence. As the meeting conclusions make clear, the leaders saw defence as a critical area of EU policy and they proclaimed their readiness to increase defence budgets, de-fragment European…
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Europe’s Geopolitical Coming of Age Requires Greater Defense Efforts
Having already experienced what life is like under a Donald Trump US presidency, the Europeans presently seem rather blasé about what a potential second Trump administration could entail for the European Union and NATO. For all his (very real) sins, Trump gave voice to the long-standing tensions at the heart…
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Deterrence and Economic Security: A Dialogue in Japan
I spent the best part of a week in Japan as part of a NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) project we are running on future trends in the Indo-Pacific. It was an intensive week of events and meetings and I was privileged to exchange views with government(al) representatives…
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Grand Designs: The EU’s Future Political Structures in Times of Crisis and Geopolitical Transition
The advent of institutional change in the European Union will inevitably give rise to new and old ideas about bureaucratic design. As the clock runs down on the present legislature and European Commission, expect calls for new bodies and the reshuffling of existing structures. Before this author reflects on some…
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The EU Defence Industrial Strategy: Some Preliminary Reflections
Daniel Fiott In advance of the 2024 EU Defence Industrial Strategy, and before I write a more focused and substantial piece of analysis, I wanted to lay out some key themes and issues that will confront the drafters of the new Strategy. First, let me say that the Strategy itself…
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The EU and the Military Dimensions of Ukraine’s Recovery
When accepting the Charlemagne Prize of Aachen on behalf of the Ukrainian people in May 2023, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy boldly proclaimed that ‘Ukraini- ans will always make Europe stronger’. He also cautiously warned that while history is built on victories, it also remembers defeats. It is clear that European leaders…
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EU Defence after Versailles: An Agenda for the Future
This analysis focuses on developments in European Union (EU) security and defence since the Versailles Summit, held on 10–11 March 2022. It shows how the Union’s response to Russia’s war on Ukraine has unleashed and spurred on a range of operational, industrial and political initiatives that will influence security and…
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Purchasing Power: Towards Joint Procurement and Planning in European Defence?
Since 2016, the European Union has financially supported the joint development of defence innovation and capabilities. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, the Union sought to develop its defence industrial base for the production ammunition and equipment. This step comes with an emphasis on “joint-ness”: the idea that Europeans need…
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Qualified Majority Voting in EU Foreign Policy: A Cost of Non-Europe Report
The following study deals with qualified majority voting (QMV) and the common foreign and security policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). As the EU develops into a geopolitical actor, it is necessary to analyse its existing and future foreign policy decision-making procedures. However, a series of high-profile instances have…
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Two Fronts, One Goal: Euro-Atlantic Security in the Indo-Pacific Age
This paper outlines how Europe can contribute to alleviating the “two-front” predicament in U .S. global strategy . It shows how Europeans can help free up the United States’ strategic bandwidth in Europe so as to enable a proper U .S. prioritization of China without weakening Europe’s deterrence architecture. The…
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When the War Ends: Rebuilding Ukraine and European Security
€383 billion. This is the amount of investment the World Bank believes is required to reconstruct Ukraine over a 10-year period. Ukraine’s own government puts the post-war reconstruction bill at about €679 billion over 10 years. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development puts the figure at €250 billion for 5 years,…
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NATO and the Current Security Context
In many respects, the NATO Vilnius Summit of 11-12 July 2023 revealed one of the core issues facing the alliance today: how, when and if to enlarge to include Ukraine. Enlargement has always been a sensitive and contested issue for NATO, but the prospect of taking on a country that…
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Analyzing the Outcomes of the 2023 NATO Summit
The NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023 came at a testing time for the alliance. With the Ukrainian offensive, Russia’s war on Ukraine has entered a delicate phase. NATO allies and EU member states are turning to questions about what the post-war settlement might look like, and there…
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In Orbit: The European Union, Defence and Space Domain Awareness
Following the March 2023 publication of the European Union’s Space Strategy for Security and Defence, the Union has moved into new conceptual territory. In thinking about how to ensure its security and defence in outer space, the Union has emphasised the importance of “Space Domain Awareness”. The meaning of this…
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Votes, Vetoes, Values: Foreign Interference, QMV and EU Foreign Policy in a Competitive Age
Abstract In early May 2023, a group of nine European Union countries called for reform of the way the Union takes decisions in its foreign and security policy. Traditionally a field where consensus and unanimity are the norm, pleas in favour of Qualified Majority Voting – where a single state…
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The Weight of Expectations: The EU and the Protection of Europe
One of the consequences of the war on Ukraine has been a greater realisation that the defence industry matters to the European Union (EU). This may seem like an odd statement given that the Union started to stimulate its defence industry after the EU Global Strategy with frame- works and tools such as the…
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Cooperation in an Era of Strategic Competition: EU-NATO Relations in the Context of War and Rivalry
This Policy Brief looks at the growing relations and cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It does so in the context of a return to war in Europe and growing strategic rivalry between the United States (US) and China. Europeans have long been…
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Disorder: the War and Russia’s Economic Statecraft
Abstract Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West has looked to support Kyiv and impose crushing economic measures on the Russian economy. Sanctions and divestment have punctured a hole in Russia’s war fighting machine, but there are also fears that the Kremlin has been able to use…
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In Every Crisis an Opportunity? European Union Integration in Defence and the War on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has upended the European security order. Ukraine has requested EU membership, unprecedented sanctions have been imposed on Russia, European countries have shipped weapons and munitions to Ukraine and NATO has shored up its military presence. Despite such action, is it possible to speak of a transformative…
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Counter-order: Chinese Power, the West and Geo-economics
Abstract The United States (US)-led world order that has prevailed for the past few decades is being contested by rival powers such as China. A crucial aspect of great power competition is economic statecraft and China is skilfully fusing various aspects of its economic diplomacy and financial strength to undermine…
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Order: the Financing of Alliances and Western Power
Abstract Russia’s war on Ukraine and the rise of China are raising serious questions about order in international politics. If the West is to have a fighting chance at maintaining its military supremacy and upholding global order, it needs to answer some fundamental questions about the United States (US)-led alliance…
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Strategic Competition: Toward a Genuine Step-change for Europe’s Defense Industry?
Since 2016 the European Union has embarked on a step-change in the way it financially supports and incentivizes defense-industrial cooperation. The year 2022 will go down as another important moment in this process with the EU announcing a series of measures, such as joint defense procurement and joint planning and…
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Navigating the Euro-Atlantic Defence Innovation Landscape
This report set out to analyse emerging transatlantic defence innovation systems and the extent to which EU and NATO efforts in the domain overlap, are in conflict or have potential synergies. The overarching finding is that EU and NATO systems are separate but heavily interdependent. They are separate in terms…
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Daniel Fiott 