Daniel Fiott

Tag: Defence

  • Hanging Together or Hanging Separately? Europe and the Indo-Pacific in United States-China Rivalry

    The United States appears to be consistent on the idea that “great power” or “strategic” competition and, more specifically, “competition with China” stands out as its overriding national security priority. Insofar as Trump administration’s strategic approach towards Ukraine and Europe appears to be significantly informed by China and Indo Pacific-related…

  • Europe’s Dual Challenge in the Trump Era

    In the absence of the US security guarantee, Europe will have to rearm while also remaining united. The good news is that the Europeans are capable of achieving both—as long as they truly want to. When faced with the second Trump presidency, Europe may be experiencing all five stages of…

  • Primed for Deterrence? NATO and the Indo-Pacific in the Age of Great Power Competition

    As the United States prioritises deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific, the question of how Europeans can take primary responsibility for conventional defence in Europe will take centre stage at NATO’s upcoming 76th Summit in The Hague. Against this backdrop, the future of the Alliance’s own Indo-Pacific agenda hinges on…

  • Going it Alone, Doing So Divided? The Era of Uncertainties and Europe’s Defence Industrial Politics

    Despite the epoch changing nature of Russia’s war and the second Trump presidency, Europeans do not yet appear ready for more European Union (EU) defence integration. The European Commission has designed a credible package of defence industrial initiatives, detailed its White Paper, but some schemes risk reinforcing the very structural…

  • Special Delivery? The European Council and the March 2025 Defence Summit

    The 6 March 2025 European Council special meeting focused on European defence and support to Ukraine. European leaders have put-off answering fundamental questions related to European security guarantees. The special European Council meeting set the parameters for a substantial increase in European defence spending. CSDS Policy Brief Read

  • Spending Our Way Out of a Crisis? The Challenges and Benefits of ReArming Europe

    The European Commission has announced a €800 billion increase in defence spending, but this figure masks the challenges facing Europe’s defence market. The injection of €150 billion worth of loans for defence raises questions about the real needs of Europe’s defence. The European Commission is set to introduce a raft…

  • All in? The revival of the Spanish and European defence industry

    Meeting at an informal leaders’ retreat in Brussels in early February 2025, EU leaders were keen to establish the political guidelines for a host of defence policy developments in 2025. In the context of the continuing war against Ukraine, and the uncertainties posed by the new US Administration, Europeans are…

  • Unity is Not Enough: How will Europe Navigate the Trumpian Era of Geopolitical Competition?

    The second Trump presidency will in many ways be unique, but Europeans will likely still pursue the short-term tactics of keeping a low profile or enhancing bilateralism with the United States (US). Europeans may try to play President Trump at his own game through transactionalism, or to engage with China…

  • Manufacturing Defence: Europe, the Republic of Korea and Defence Industrial Cooperation

    South Korea has emerged as a major supplier to European militaries, and this has helped with Europe’s imminent need for military rejuvenation. Given the quality of South Korean defence equipment and supplies, Seoul is viewed with credibility in the defence sector and this bodes well for future cooperation. There remain…

  • Wait and See? The Dynamics of Europe’s Evolving Approach to the Sahel

    13/2024 Having faced a series of coup d’états in recent years, the Sahel region is marked by instability and it raises fundamental security questions for Europe. In a context where European governments are responding to Russia’s war on Ukraine, and where crisis management is viewed with less salience, the Sahel…

  • L’Union européenne de la défense: Commentaire article par article

    L’Union européenne de la défense, qui se construit depuis quelques années dans un contexte sécuritaire préoccupant, dépend du droit de l’Union, c’est-à dire tant des règles fixées par les États membres dans les traités que de celles adoptées par les institutions européennes. En effet, l’Union européenne de la défense ne…

  • The European Defence Commissioner is Here

    By introducing a defence commissioner, Ursula von der Leyen’s second European Commission makes clear that Europe’s security is an urgent priority. Defence industrial policy will, by necessity, be a key focus. IP Quarterly, 2024 Read Image credit: All rights reserved Copyright owner © John Thys/Pool via REUTERS

  • Keep it Moving: From Mobility to Logistics in European Defence

    The European Union (EU) has been developing military mobility, but so far with mixed results. It is time to rethink these efforts by investing more generally in military logistics. With the forthcoming “Niinistö Report” and defence White Paper, there is an opportunity to develop the EU’s defence preparedness and make…

  • Towards Ambition and Consistency in European Defence Investments

    Following the results of the European elections, Ursula von der Leyen delivered a statement at the European Parliament on 18 July 2024 to support her second mandate as European Commission President. Outlining her vision for the future, the President stated that Europe “can choose to invest in the security and…

  • A Partner of Choice? Spain’s Performance in the European Defence Fund in 2023

    Real Instituto Elcano Since 2021 there have been three calls of proposals under the European Defence Fund (EDF). The 2023 results publicly released by the European Commission in May 2024 reveal that Spain continues to perform well as to the Fund. This can be seen in the way Spain is…

  • Strategic Domains: Developing the EU’s Capabilities and Enablers for a Free and Secure Global Order

    Future Europe – European Liberal Forum The deteriorating global security order is calling into question old certainties about how freely and securely Europe can access and use global commons such as the seas, air and space. The rise of authoritarian and revisionist powers will only make it more challenging for…

  • Defending Europe, That is the Question

    In this edition of the European Council Experts’ Debrief, our experts focus on the theme of security and defence. We asked eleven experts to respond to the following question, formulated by TEPSA Secretary-General Jim Cloos and Executive Director Mariam Khotenashvili: “In view of the multiple new threats in a rapidly…

  • The 7Ds – Defence in Depth

    When an idea like the defence community re-emerges regularly over the course of 70 years but is never realised, what does this tell us? The message is, first, that the idea is backed by a strong rationale that does not allow us simply to shelve it and move on; but…

  • Defence as a core pillar of European integration

    CIDOB Monographs nº 88 The politicisation of European affairs, and the steady rise of clashing views on them, is a growing and irrepressible phenomenon. In this context, the outcome of the elections to the European Parliament will determine the future of the legislative process on many issues: the green agenda,…

  • Order, Counter-Order, Disorder? Regional and Global Security Orders in the Shadow of Sino-American Competition

    As part of an international security seminar organised by the US Military Academy, West Point, in February 2023, a collection of essays have been produced based on the panel sessions. I was extremely pleased to contribute three essays to the collection along with my great American colleagues. The three papers…

  • Beyond Strategy? Industrial Strategy and the Future of European Defence

    On 5 March 2024, the European Union published its first ever European Defence Industrial Strategy. In the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Europe understands that investing in its defence industrial and technological base is a core way of enhancing Europe’s defence, playing a bigger role in transatlantic burden-sharing and lowering manufacturing and technology…

  • War Economy: Ukraine, the European Union and the Defence Technological and Industrial Base

    Ukraine’s defence industry has become a central feature of the country’s military strategy against Russia, and the European Union (EU) understood early on the potential of cooperation with Ukraine in this sector. This CSDS Policy Brief explains how there are several challenges to integrating Ukraine’s defence industry into the European Defence…

  • How Europe is preparing for Trump II

    The US Presidential elections has cast a shadow over Europe. Although still more than half a year away and with an uncertain outcome, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is widely viewed by politicians, officials, experts and the public across Europe as a challenge for international…

  • From Liberalisation to Industrial Policy: Towards a Geoeconomic Turn in the European Defence Market?

    The European defence market can be described as a geoeconomically relevant sector that forms part of Europe’s overall economy, not least in the way that it is a producer of military capabilities and technologies and a repository of scientific skills. Traditionally, European Union (EU)-level steps to support and liberalise the…

  • In Whose Interests? Regulating Europe’s Defence Industry and the Politics of Exemptions

    The European Union (EU) needs to ramp-up its defence-industrial production and it is looking to do this with a new financial tool termed the European Defence Investment Programme (EDIP). The introduction of the EDIP will raise questions about the European Commission’s commitment to market liberalisation in the defence sector. Joint…

  • Military Attacks and the European Union

    The EU’s “Mutual Assistance Clause” is designed to ensure an EU-wide response in case of an act of armed aggression against any member state. Yet, the treaties are unclear about what a response should look like in practice, even though the unique character of individual member states is maintained. As…

  • Military-Technological Cooperation Across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific

    The “AUKUS” agreement between Australia, United Kingdom and United States has emerged as the paragon of military-technological cooperation across the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. There are considerable challenges to implementation. However, it is important that the AUKUS program be a success because it is a daring and novel approach to…

  • The Turning Tide? A European Agenda for the Washington Summit

    War has raged in Ukraine for close to two years now, and Russia’s illegal war continues to pose a strategic dilemma for NATO and the European Union. Although allies are producing more ammunition and equipment, there is a risk that Europeans do too little, too late. There may only be…

  • My work with the Real Instituto Elcano in 2023

    Another year over. As a Non-Resident Fellow at the Real Instituto Elcano, I have had the great pleasure of working closely with my colleagues in the Brussels office and at our headquarters in Madrid. I want to thank all of my colleagues and the Institute’s leadership. It has been a…

  • My Work with CSDS in 2023 – A Year in Review

    Wishing my followers a Happy New Year and all the best for 2024! Here’s a round-up of my work with CSDS in 2023. It was a productive year for publications. I published 3 peer-reviewed articles including:  In Every Crisis an Opportunity? European Union Integration in Defence and the War on…