The EU’s 2026 threat assessment demonstrates that while Europe has developed a clearer understanding of its strategic environment, it remains less certain about the political choices required to respond to it. Russia’s war has brought European threat perceptions closer together, but convergence around the existence of a threat has yet to produce a genuinely common European strategic outlook. While Europeans increasingly agree on the threats they will face by 2030, they remain far less confident in their collective ability to respond to them.
CSDS Policy Brief, 17/2026
Daniel Fiott 