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Defence Innovation Trends: A Data Snapshot of the European Defence Fund, 2021-2024
The European Defence Fund (EDF) has been in operation since 2021 and has become an integral part of European efforts to enhance defence investments. Since 2021, the European Commission has invested €4 billion into 225 collaborative defence research and development (R&D) projects. A major challenge will be keeping the momentum by securing more funding for the EDF under the next Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF).
CSDS Policy Brief
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Sovereignty by Design? Security of Supply in Defence in the European Union
In 2025, security of supply in defence in the European Union is yet again on the policy agenda, especially given the ongoing war on Ukraine and shifts in the transatlantic relationship. In this policy paper, we take stock of the EU’s recent efforts to develop defence industrial policy and its relationship with security of supply. We distinguish between different forms of supply insecurity and address the inherent tensions involved in developing an EU security of supply regime in defence. The paper also uncovers whether arguments counter to such a regime are convincing or not. The paper discusses different concepts of security of supply in defence and it analyses the various policies proposed by the European Commission including the EDIP and SAFE. The paper also reflects on the political stakes involved in ensuring security of supply in defence at the EU level.
ARES Group, May 2025
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Hanging Together or Hanging Separately? Europe and the Indo-Pacific in United States-China Rivalry
The United States appears to be consistent on the idea that “great power” or “strategic” competition and, more specifically, “competition with China” stands out as its overriding national security priority. Insofar as Trump administration’s strategic approach towards Ukraine and Europe appears to be significantly informed by China and Indo Pacific-related considerations, the US is operating under the assumption that there is a high-degree of interdependence between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific strategic dynamics. This CSDS In-Depth Paper tries to make sense of how strategic dynamics in Europe and the Indo-Pacific intersect with each other, what that means for US strategy and the implications for US allies in both regions. The paper offers key US allies such as European states and Australia a pathfinder into how dynamics within and between strategic theatres may play out, and, more importantly, what are the repercussions of these dynamics for key Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific actors such as Australia, Europe, Japan, South Korea and others.
CSDS In-Depth Paper with Luis Simón, Daniel Fiott, Octavian Manea, Zack Cooper and Toshi Yoshihara
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Europe’s Dual Challenge in the Trump Era
In the absence of the US security guarantee, Europe will have to rearm while also remaining united. The good news is that the Europeans are capable of achieving both—as long as they truly want to. When faced with the second Trump presidency, Europe may be experiencing all five stages of grief at the same time: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Where Europe’s defense and deterrence are concerned, the stakes of coming to terms with the new US administration could not be higher. Europe faces war in Ukraine and the Russian threat will not simply go away, even with a temporary “peace.” Europe’s whole security architecture has been founded on cardinal, sacred truths for many decades: The United States provides Europe’s nuclear and conventional defense and in exchange Europe keeps its markets open to America, buys US military equipment, and joins the US on expeditionary operations.
Internationale Politik Quarterly
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Primed for Deterrence? NATO and the Indo-Pacific in the Age of Great Power Competition
As the United States prioritises deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific, the question of how Europeans can take primary responsibility for conventional defence in Europe will take centre stage at NATO’s upcoming 76th Summit in The Hague. Against this backdrop, the future of the Alliance’s own Indo-Pacific agenda hinges on the ability to reconcile two seemingly contradictory pressures. On the one hand, NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners must think about how their cooperation can add value in the context of strategic competition with China. On the other hand, however, they must ensure that their cooperation does not detract from what must be their overriding priority: shoring up deterrence in their respective regions. This In-Depth Paper outlines a way to square that seemingly impossible circle. Ultimately, NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners face a strikingly similar conceptual and operational problem: how to implement deterrence by denial in their home regions. This underscores the potential for synergies. We advocate for NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners to strive towards a cross-theatre ecosystem of concepts, doctrines, capabilities, technologies and standards that i) bolsters deterrence by denial; and ii) respects the principle of regional prioritisation. Such cross-theatre deterrence ecosystem, we argue, would simplify standards and reduce the number of systems, platforms and munitions produced by the US and its allies, thus potentially yielding significant gains in terms of efficiency, scale and speed of delivery.
CSDS In-Depth Paper with Luis Simón, Alexander Mattelaer, Masayuki Masuda, Lotje Boswinkel, Alexander Lanoszka and Hugo Meijer.
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Going it Alone, Doing So Divided? The Era of Uncertainties and Europe’s Defence Industrial Politics
Despite the epoch changing nature of Russia’s war and the second Trump presidency, Europeans do not yet appear ready for more European Union (EU) defence integration. The European Commission has designed a credible package of defence industrial initiatives, detailed its White Paper, but some schemes risk reinforcing the very structural risks the Commission seeks to avoid. The forthcoming negotiations for the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP) will be a genuine test of whether the Union can craft a well-financed, durable and equitable EDTIB.
CSDS Policy Brief
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Special Delivery? The European Council and the March 2025 Defence Summit
The 6 March 2025 European Council special meeting focused on European defence and support to Ukraine. European leaders have put-off answering fundamental questions related to European security guarantees. The special European Council meeting set the parameters for a substantial increase in European defence spending.
CSDS Policy Brief
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Spending Our Way Out of a Crisis? The Challenges and Benefits of ReArming Europe
The European Commission has announced a €800 billion increase in defence spending, but this figure masks the challenges facing Europe’s defence market. The injection of €150 billion worth of loans for defence raises questions about the real needs of Europe’s defence. The European Commission is set to introduce a raft of new measures to support European defence, but this will be a test of true political solidarity within the European Union (EU).
CSDS Policy Brief
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All in? The revival of the Spanish and European defence industry
Meeting at an informal leaders’ retreat in Brussels in early February 2025, EU leaders were keen to establish the political guidelines for a host of defence policy developments in 2025. In the context of the continuing war against Ukraine, and the uncertainties posed by the new US Administration, Europeans are set to bolster their cooperation in an EU context as well as take up a greater role in NATO. It is to be hoped that more cooperation between EU member states will help respond to the pressure to spend more on defence, as well as reverse the fragmentation of the European defence market. For a country such as Spain there are critical questions to consider, including its level of defence spending, how to participate in future EU defence procurement projects and how to align EU-NATO targets as much as possible. Spainis well placed to benefit from a future European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), but ensuring that it can capitalise on and influence Europe’s revival of the defence industry requires Spain to do its homework.
Real Instituto Elcano – February 2025
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Unity is Not Enough: How will Europe Navigate the Trumpian Era of Geopolitical Competition?
The second Trump presidency will in many ways be unique, but Europeans will likely still pursue the short-term tactics of keeping a low profile or enhancing bilateralism with the United States (US). Europeans may try to play President Trump at his own game through transactionalism, or to engage with China and others to hedge against Washington, but there are grave risks in pursuing these lines. The European Union (EU) needs to be bold in planning for life after President Trump. This calls for far greater defence spending, supporting Ukraine and lowering energy and technology dependencies.
CSDS Policy Brief, 2/2025
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Daniel Fiott 